Tropical Storm “Helene” formed on Tuesday, September 24, as the 8th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season and is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday, September 25, before reaching the Gulf Coast this week.
As of 12:00 UTC on Wednesday, September 25, the storm was located approximately 100 km (60 miles) ENE of Cozumel, Mexico, and 160 km (100 miles) WSW of the western tip of Cuba.
The system is currently moving northwest at a speed of 15 km/h (9 mph), with a minimum central pressure of around 979 hPa and maximum sustained winds of around 110 km/h (70 mph). Tropical storm-force winds are extending up to 280 km (175 miles) from the center.
On the forecast track, the center of Helene will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Thursday, and reach the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday (LT), September 26.
The storm is forecast to rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and become a major hurricane on Thursday.
A Storm Surge Warning is currently in effect for several regions, including Indian Pass southward to Flamingo, Tampa Bay, and Charlotte Harbor. This warning signals the potential for life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline, necessitating immediate preparedness for residents in these areas.
Additionally, a Hurricane Warning has been issued for the areas stretching from Anclote River to Mexico Beach in Florida, as well as from Cabo Catoche to Tulum in Mexico, including the island of Cozumel. A Hurricane Warning indicates that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Hurricane Watch is in place for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio and for the coastal areas from Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, typically within 48 hours. Residents in these areas should closely monitor updates and be ready to act if a warning is issued.
Furthermore, a Tropical Storm Warning is effective for the Dry Tortugas, the entirety of the Florida Keys, and the Florida west coast from Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay. It also covers areas west of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line, the Florida east coast from Flamingo northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia, Lake Okeechobee, and the regions from Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche in Mexico. Additionally, the Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth are under this warning. A Tropical Storm Warning indicates that tropical storm conditions, including sustained winds of 63-118 km/h (39-73 mph), are expected within 36 hours, and preparations should be completed as soon as possible.
Lastly, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coastal regions north of Altamaha Sound to the South Santee River in Georgia and South Carolina. This watch signals that tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 48 hours, and residents should be vigilant and ready to take action if conditions worsen.
Tropical Storm “Helene” is forecast to bring significant rainfall across various regions, with total accumulations expected to range between 102 to 203 mm (4 to 8 inches) over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the northeastern Yucatán Peninsula. In some isolated areas, rainfall could reach up to 305 mm (12 inches), posing a serious threat of substantial flooding.
Helene is projected to deliver even heavier rainfall in the Southeastern United States, with totals between 127 to 254 mm (5 to 10 inches) and isolated amounts reaching approximately 381 mm (15 inches). This intense rainfall is likely to cause widespread flash flooding and urban flooding, along with significant river flooding. The southern Appalachian regions, particularly those with steep terrain, may also face the risk of landslides due to the heavy downpour.
Regarding storm surge, the combination of a dangerous surge and high tide is expected to flood normally dry areas near the coast as waters rise and move inland.
The water levels could reach heights of 3 to 4.6 m (10 to 15 feet) above ground in areas from Ochlockonee River, FL, to Chassahowitzka, FL. In the region from Chassahowitzka to Anclote River, FL, surge heights are anticipated to be between 1.8 to 3 m (6 to 10 feet).
Other areas, such as Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL, and Anclote River to the middle of Longboat Key, FL, could see water levels rise by 1.5 to 3 m (5 to 10 feet) and 1.5 to 2.4 m (5 to 8 feet), respectively. Tampa Bay itself is expected to experience similar surge levels, while areas from the middle of Longboat Key to Englewood, FL, and Englewood to Flamingo, FL, could see surges of 1.2 to 2.1 m (4 to 7 feet) and 0.9 to 1.5 m (3 to 5 feet), respectively. Charlotte Harbor is also expected to experience surges between 0.9 to 1.5 m (3 to 5 feet).
In addition to the U.S., the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, could see storm surge levels increase by 0.6 to 1.2 m (2 to 4 feet) above normal tide levels. Similar surge levels are expected along the east coast of the Yucatán Peninsula within the warning area.
Concerning wind conditions, hurricane conditions are anticipated in the hurricane warning areas in Mexico within the next several hours, with tropical storm conditions already occurring. In the U.S., hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area late Thursday, while western Cuba could experience hurricane conditions later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Cuba within the next few hours and in southern Florida later today, gradually spreading northward through Thursday. Areas under the tropical storm watch could begin experiencing these conditions on Thursday and Thursday night.
There is also a potential for tornado activity, with a possible occurrence tonight over parts of the western Florida peninsula and southern Alabama. The tornado risk will escalate on Thursday, extending across Florida and into parts of Georgia and South Carolina.
Helene is also generating dangerous swells, which will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatán Peninsula over the next few days. These swells are expected to reach the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast by late today and Thursday, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Residents in these areas should monitor local weather updates and heed safety advisories.
Authorities in Florida have declared a state of emergency for at least 61 counties and are urging residents to prepare before the storm hits, with shelters already opening in anticipation of the storm’s impact.
“This has the potential to be a really significant storm. So you have time to prepare. You have time to plan. You have time to take the action that you need,” Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said.
In Charlotte County, evacuation advisories have been issued for residents in temporary housing and on barrier islands, including Don Pedro Island, Knight Islands, Little Gasparilla Island, Gasparilla Island, and Manasota Key. Those living in low-lying, flood-prone areas or in structures vulnerable to high winds, such as trailers and mobile homes, are also being urged to evacuate.
The Charlotte County Commission has opened two shelters at Harold Avenue Regional Park and Kingsway Elementary School, starting Wednesday afternoon. Although evacuation orders have not yet been extended to inland residents, the storm’s unpredictable path may necessitate a broader evacuation.
In Fort Myers Beach, preparations are underway as residents remain cautious, recalling the significant storm surge from Tropical Storm “Debby” in August.
Floridians are also rushing to gas stations to fuel their vehicles, causing long lines and fuel shortages at some locations, particularly along Route 41 in Naples. Authorities are advising residents to ensure their vehicles are fully fueled before the storm arrives.
